Analyst Bets on Active Treasury Management to Beat Passive ETFs
In a notable shift from the prevailing enthusiasm for spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza has initiated coverage on three digital asset treasury companies – Nakamoto (NAKA), Sharplink (SBET), and Strive (ASST) – with 'Buy' ratings. Vitanza posits that these firms, which actively manage their crypto holdings and engage in strategic operations, are better positioned to deliver superior returns than their passive ETF counterparts, particularly if the broader crypto market experiences a significant rebound.
Vitanza's bullish outlook is predicated on a scenario where Bitcoin reaches approximately $140,000 and Ethereum hits $3,650 by the close of 2026. Under these conditions, he projects substantial dollar gains for each company, driven by their unique operational models that extend beyond simple asset custody.
Nakamoto Holdings: Diversified Bitcoin Accumulation
Nakamoto (NAKA) received a 'Buy' rating and a $1.00 price target, suggesting a potential five-fold increase from its current $0.21. Vitanza highlights Nakamoto's distinctive approach, which combines direct Bitcoin accumulation with strategic minority stakes in international treasury firms like Metaplanet and Treasury BV. Beyond its treasury operations, Nakamoto also boasts operating businesses in media, Bitcoin advocacy, and digital asset management, creating what Vitanza describes as "distinct synergy potential." This diversified strategy aims to generate value not just from holding Bitcoin, but from a broader ecosystem of related ventures.
Sharplink: Ethereum Staking and Strategic Growth
Sharplink (SBET), initiated with a 'Buy' rating and a $16 price target, is positioned as an Ethereum treasury company. Led by former BlackRock head of digital assets, Joseph Chalom, and Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, Sharplink focuses on growing its ether per share through treasury operations and staking. Vitanza argues that Sharplink's active staking strategy could yield better returns than spot Ether ETPs, which often incur higher fees and face limitations on staking a large portion of their holdings. He also notes that Sharplink's staking income is robust enough to cover operating costs, providing a buffer even in weaker markets while awaiting capital market recovery.
Strive: The Consolidator in a Discounted Market
Strive (ASST) also received a 'Buy' rating, with a $26 price target, nearly tripling its current $9.64. Vitanza points to Strive's pioneering move in acquiring another public Bitcoin treasury company, Semler Scientific, in January 2026. He views this as a "watershed event," suggesting Strive could emerge as a key consolidator in a market where many treasury companies trade at a discount to their underlying Bitcoin value. Strive's blend of asset management, social media marketing, and Bitcoin education businesses further supports its treasury operations, potentially enabling it to outperform spot Bitcoin funds in a favorable market.
Why Active Management Could Trump Passive ETFs
The core of Vitanza's argument lies in the active strategies employed by these companies. Unlike spot ETFs, which primarily track the price of their underlying asset, these treasury firms actively seek to expand their token holdings per share. This includes:
- Aggressive Accumulation: Continuously adding to their Bitcoin or Ethereum reserves.
- Staking Yields: Generating additional income by staking their Ethereum holdings, which ETFs often cannot do as effectively due to structural limitations and fees.
- Strategic Investments & Acquisitions: Making minority investments or acquiring other entities to create synergistic value and expand their asset base.
- Operating Businesses: Leveraging related business units (media, advocacy, asset management) to support treasury operations and generate additional revenue streams, covering costs even in down markets.
These multifaceted approaches, Vitanza contends, allow these companies to potentially generate better yields and cover operating costs more effectively than a pure-play ETF, especially during periods of market volatility or recovery. Investors looking beyond simple price exposure might find these actively managed crypto stocks a compelling alternative for capturing upside in a rebounding digital asset market.