Wall Street broker Bernstein has issued a bold forecast, projecting that prediction market volumes will skyrocket to $1 trillion by 2030. This ambitious outlook, detailed in a recent report, positions prediction markets to evolve from a niche activity into a mainstream 'information market' driven by a confluence of regulatory clarity, blockchain innovation, and strategic distribution partnerships with major trading platforms.
The Trillion-Dollar Horizon: Growth Drivers
Bernstein's analysis suggests a staggering growth trajectory, with volumes expected to climb from $51 billion in 2025 to approximately $1 trillion by the end of the decade. This implies an impressive 80% compound annual growth rate. The report highlights that activity has already accelerated significantly in 2026, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi collectively recording $60 billion in year-to-date volumes.
Key drivers underpinning this projected expansion include:
- Regulatory Clarity: Increasing federal-level regulatory certainty is expanding the addressable market, moving beyond fragmented state-level gaming rules.
- Crypto Rails: Blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets are enabling global liquidity, facilitating the rapid creation of diverse event contracts, and attracting institutional participation.
- Improved User Experience: Enhanced platform design and accessibility are lowering barriers to entry for a broader user base.
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani emphasized that this combination is accelerating adoption and pushing the sector toward mainstream relevance.
Shifting Sands: From Sports to Crypto and Macro
While sports currently account for a significant 62% of prediction market volumes, Bernstein anticipates a notable shift in market composition. The report projects that sports' share will decline to roughly 31% by 2030. This transition will be driven by the increasing traction of crypto-linked contracts, as well as macroeconomic, political, and broader economic events.
This diversification is expected to attract greater institutional participation, particularly for hedging event-driven risks, further solidifying prediction markets as a critical tool for information aggregation and risk management.
Revenue Potential and Distribution Powerhouses
The financial upside for prediction markets is equally compelling. Bernstein analysts estimate that industry revenues could surge from approximately $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, ultimately reaching an impressive $10.8 billion by 2030, even at current take rates. The report suggests that a multi-billion-dollar revenue pool is achievable, even with potential fee compression.
Crucially, distribution is emerging as a significant competitive advantage. The report identifies Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as early leaders in this space, leveraging their combined tens of millions of users. Robinhood has already built a substantial $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets and is actively moving towards owning exchange infrastructure. Coinbase, through its partnership with Kalshi, has gained nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts, further solidifying its position. Bernstein maintains an outperform rating on both Coinbase and Robinhood, underscoring their strategic importance in this burgeoning sector.